TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN KOGI STATE: (A CASE STUDY OF LOKOJA-ABUJA ROAD FROM YEAR 2000-2010)

ABSTRACT

The major objective of this research is to examine the variation pattern of traffic accident in Kogi State, a case study of Lokoja-Abuja Road. The study used mostly secondary data; accident record and vehicular situation were obtained from the Federal Road Safety Commission. The data were obtained for a period of eleven (11) years from 2000-2011. Statistical analysis was done using the moving average method to smoothing the time series and the least square method was used to predict the reported case of Road Traffic Accident which showed that there is an increase in the rate of Road Traffic Accident. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was also carried out at 95%, and 99% level of significant to test the coefficient of (β) which the test showed that the trend line fit. Hence, based on the research, it means that the trend equation may be used to forecast the cause of Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs). The study finally made some recommendation to improve Road Safety in the country.

Keywords:Time Series, Road Accident